Glowforge release

[Bert Kemp]

Remember a while back I posted that I went to Rockler seeking info on the FSL laser. The guy new absoluty nothing about the machine. They would engrave a name tag for potential buyers and whoa thats cool but ask then a question about the machine, Wattage , tube length anything they new nothing. Their just a re seller
ask all questions to FSL and When I did they told me they didn't know either .

Hey Dave,

Regarding the Muse....for what it is worth the sales people at our local Rockler store, a wood workers store that is carrying CNC's now along with FSL lasers, smile at you with reallllllllly thin tight lips when you ask them how they are doing with FSL. The smiles are the sort of smiles that make you take a few steps back if you know what I mean. <grin>

[Paul Phillips]

I don't think it's a scam at all. I suspect he'll be delivering units sooner or later. I also suspect that these early buyers are of little concern to them. They are mere parts of a larger chess game he's playing. Do you really think he has a passion to be a laser manufacturer? After all, he has a documented past of various accomplishments. His pattern is he creates something, sells it for a lot of money and moves on to the next project. I also suspect this isn't any different to him. Why do I suggest these orders mean little to him? Because the end user having machines isn't important at this point. What is going to be important is that when they go out, they appear to be pretty well fine tuned, from a company standpoint. That'll get great media buzz and create a ton of excitement from potential bidders to buy the company. When they see a finely tuned project, they won't care about anything prior to that day, all they will care about is knowing that they can turn it into a billion dollar company. They'll buy the company for $500 million and he'll move on to the next great thing.

He wants to get machines to those who have supported him because that's his pattern. He's bought every review you see online. There's not one independent review that I've seen. Reddit posts have documented that "reviews" were in fact paid advertisements that looked like reviews. He's following that path again. "Let's make sure all the people that say we're awesome get machines first" just puts your cheerleaders into cheerleading mode. When it comes out, there will be so much positive press it won't be funny. You'll see the bidding war start because no one will find a single bad thing said.

So he will have taken $28 million in investments and turned that into $500 million and he'll be the golden child. It's not that hard to see when you look at the things going on.

I can't wait for the consumers to start changing tubes. Nothing is more fun that getting electrocuted while unhooking a tube......

Steve, this assessment makes more sense than anything else I've heard anyone come up with, excellent view of the bigger picture, well done.

[Jerome Stanek]

Steve, this assessment makes more sense than anything else I've heard anyone come up with, excellent view of the bigger picture, well done.

You still have to have a working product to sell they still have not released any production units. I see someone o their forum brought up a question about if the proprietary laser tube goes out and the company that is making them quits.

[Scott Shepherd]

You still have to have a working product to sell they still have not released any production units. I see someone o their forum brought up a question about if the proprietary laser tube goes out and the company that is making them quits.

That's not going to be a problem, they'll have units shipping before too long. Again, it doesn't matter. In the master plan, do they really care about 2,000 people when their end goal is selling to a big company that plans to sell millions and millions of them? Those 2,000 people won't even be remembered.

Those 2,000 (or however many it is) are just pawns in the game, using their money to push the cart forward to the big buyer.

I'm sure he's excited about the project and his heart is in it 100%, but once it's released, watch how fast that company gets bought out. He'll end up staying on in some advisory role through the transition and get a big hunk of stock or something, which will keep his name associated with it for a while.

I could be completely wrong, but that's my impression of what's happening.

[John Lifer]

I think you are right Scott, it was never about making a company that you will manage and make things forever. It is actually about just getting it going and selling... I hope no one will bite on this horse. Someone will get burnt and badly

[Matt McCoy]

That's not going to be a problem, they'll have units shipping before too long. Again, it doesn't matter. In the master plan, do they really care about 2,000 people when their end goal is selling to a big company that plans to sell millions and millions of them? Those 2,000 people won't even be remembered.

Those 2,000 (or however many it is) are just pawns in the game, using their money to push the cart forward to the big buyer.

I'm sure he's excited about the project and his heart is in it 100%, but once it's released, watch how fast that company gets bought out. He'll end up staying on in some advisory role through the transition and get a big hunk of stock or something, which will keep his name associated with it for a while.

I could be completely wrong, but that's my impression of what's happening.

GF had revenue of about $45 million at one point last year. Some quick and dirty math could mean it's plausible that about 10,000 -13,000 machines were sold. That's a lot more than 2,000 and unlikely to just be an afterthought to everyone involved. If you're familiar with how start-up tech companies work, the path is to typically create something, get funded, deliver that something, and then hopefully be attractive enough to sell to a larger fish or file an IPO. Both results are considered successes. That's just how it works and certainly not something devious or less noble, as you seem to be suggesting. The investment to make something like this is big and requires a large return to reward the risk.

[Scott Shepherd]

That's just how it works and certainly not something devious or less noble, as you seem to be suggesting.

Let me know when you can point out where I said anything about devious or less noble. I don't think there's anything wrong with starting up a company with the intent to sell it for as much as human possible. However, I do believe that's what the purpose of it all is. I'm not sure their current customer base realize that's the intent, but I believe it is and so far, I think my track record on this project is close to 100% being right. All the things dozens of us said were going to happen, have happened. The fact that we're still talking about machines people haven't seen yet, 18 months after some of were told we didn't know what we were talking about and it was all under control and running smoothly and we were just haters, speaks volumes to me.

I also have repeatedly said that I don't think this is a scam and I believe they will be delivering product. The number I used (2,000) was just an example. Doesn't matter if the number is 2,000 or 20,000. In the big picture, the end buyer will be looking to sell millions of units, so 20,000 compared to 5,000,000 isn't a blip on the radar when it comes to customer interaction.

I stand by my prediction. They will hit the market, he'll use all the tools he's been using for over 2 years, and you won't find a single bad review online in a trade magazine. You'll see it all over the news, it'll be at the top of every tech magazine website, and they will all have glowing (no pun intended) reviews. It will fuel wickedly wild future sales because now it's an actual thing you can order (or walk into Staples and pick up), and they'll sell 10 times more in 3 months than they did in previous efforts, and some big company like HP or the likes will want it, they'll offer up a crazy number and the deal will be done.

Since I've been on the right side of this discussion for 2 years, I'd bet a doughnut that I'm still on the right side of it. I don't see Dan S. driving to work in Seattle at the Glowforge factory 5 years from now. My prediction could be wrong. Time will tell.

If I could start a company and sell it 4 years later for $500 million dollars (or more), then I'd do it.

[Lee DeRaud]

I also have repeatedly said that I don't think this is a scam and I believe they will be delivering product. The number I used (2,000) was just an example. Doesn't matter if the number is 2,000 or 20,000. In the big picture, the end buyer will be looking to sell millions of units, so 20,000 compared to 5,000,000 isn't a blip on the radar when it comes to customer interaction.

Am I the only one who thinks that "millions of units" is optimistic by an order-of-magnitude?

I'm having trouble believing the market is any larger than the one for consumer-grade 3D printers, which cost 5X-10X less. Anybody got a rough number for how many of those are out in the wild at this point?

[Bill George]

Lee I agree, maybe thousands or so perhaps more. But not millions.

[Matt McCoy]

Let me know when you can point out where I said anything about devious or less noble. I don't think there's anything wrong with starting up a company with the intent to sell it for as much as human possible. However, I do believe that's what the purpose of it all is. I'm not sure their current customer base realize that's the intent, but I believe it is and so far, I think my track record on this project is close to 100% being right. All the things dozens of us said were going to happen, have happened. The fact that we're still talking about machines people haven't seen yet, 18 months after some of were told we didn't know what we were talking about and it was all under control and running smoothly and we were just haters, speaks volumes to me.

I also have repeatedly said that I don't think this is a scam and I believe they will be delivering product. The number I used (2,000) was just an example. Doesn't matter if the number is 2,000 or 20,000. In the big picture, the end buyer will be looking to sell millions of units, so 20,000 compared to 5,000,000 isn't a blip on the radar when it comes to customer interaction.

I stand by my prediction. They will hit the market, he'll use all the tools he's been using for over 2 years, and you won't find a single bad review online in a trade magazine. You'll see it all over the news, it'll be at the top of every tech magazine website, and they will all have glowing (no pun intended) reviews. It will fuel wickedly wild future sales because now it's an actual thing you can order (or walk into Staples and pick up), and they'll sell 10 times more in 3 months than they did in previous efforts, and some big company like HP or the likes will want it, they'll offer up a crazy number and the deal will be done.

Since I've been on the right side of this discussion for 2 years, I'd bet a doughnut that I'm still on the right side of it. I don't see Dan S. driving to work in Seattle at the Glowforge factory 5 years from now. My prediction could be wrong. Time will tell.

If I could start a company and sell it 4 years later for $500 million dollars (or more), then I'd do it.

Your latest prediction is that GF will follow the standard issue business plan of virtually every start-up tech company. Not really going out on a limb there. I suspect Mr. Trotec and Mr. Epilog did the same thing and no longer drive to work at the factory, five years later. Their customers are probably cool with that and doing just fine. I believe Trotec is even owned by a parent company, so something to strive for.

Please do find the deleted original thread so you can remind me of your 100% prediction success. Then PM me your March Madness bracket as soon as you can.

Am I the only one who thinks that "millions of units" is optimistic by an order-of-magnitude?

I'm having trouble believing the market is any larger than the one for consumer-grade 3D printers, which cost 5X-10X less. Anybody got a rough number for how many of those are out in the wild at this point?

I agree. If they sold millions of units, they could buy up the big three and move the motion control to the cloud on all of them.

[Scott Shepherd]

Your latest prediction is that GF will follow the standard issue business plan of virtually every start-up tech company. Not really going out on a limb there. I suspect Mr. Trotec and Mr. Epilog did the same thing and no longer drive to work at the factory, five years later. Their customers are probably cool with that and doing just fine. I believe Trotec is even owned by a parent company, so something to strive for.

Please do find the deleted original thread so you can remind me of your 100% prediction success. Then PM me your March Madness bracket as soon as you can.



I agree. If they sold millions of units, they could buy up the big three and move the motion control to the cloud on all of them.

So 3 posts ago, according to you, I was implying something devious or less noble, now my prediction is obvious and it's the way everyone does it?

No need to look up a deleted thread, one thing I'm 100% sure on is I (and others) were a lot more right than wrong.

Just to recap so it doesn't get missed again...

1) They will deliver at some point

2) I don't think it's a scam.

3) I think he is following a business model that will make them very very rich.

4) I think he has a smart business model.

5) None of it impacts me, my life, or my business.

6) I do think they will sell a LOT of them once they start delivering, whenever that may be.

[Matt McCoy]

Let me know when you can point out where I said anything about devious or less noble. I don't think there's anything wrong with starting up a company with the intent to sell it for as much as human possible. However, I do believe that's what the purpose of it all is. I'm not sure their current customer base realize that's the intent, but I believe it is and so far, I think my track record on this project is close to 100% being right. All the things dozens of us said were going to happen, have happened. The fact that we're still talking about machines people haven't seen yet, 18 months after some of were told we didn't know what we were talking about and it was all under control and running smoothly and we were just haters, speaks volumes to me.

I also have repeatedly said that I don't think this is a scam and I believe they will be delivering product. The number I used (2,000) was just an example. Doesn't matter if the number is 2,000 or 20,000. In the big picture, the end buyer will be looking to sell millions of units, so 20,000 compared to 5,000,000 isn't a blip on the radar when it comes to customer interaction.

I stand by my prediction. They will hit the market, he'll use all the tools he's been using for over 2 years, and you won't find a single bad review online in a trade magazine. You'll see it all over the news, it'll be at the top of every tech magazine website, and they will all have glowing (no pun intended) reviews. It will fuel wickedly wild future sales because now it's an actual thing you can order (or walk into Staples and pick up), and they'll sell 10 times more in 3 months than they did in previous efforts, and some big company like HP or the likes will want it, they'll offer up a crazy number and the deal will be done.

Since I've been on the right side of this discussion for 2 years, I'd bet a doughnut that I'm still on the right side of it. I don't see Dan S. driving to work in Seattle at the Glowforge factory 5 years from now. My prediction could be wrong. Time will tell.

If I could start a company and sell it 4 years later for $500 million dollars (or more), then I'd do it.

So 3 posts ago, according to you, I was implying something devious or less noble, now my prediction is obvious and it's the way everyone does it?

No need to look up a deleted thread, one thing I'm 100% sure on is I (and others) were a lot more right than wrong.

Just to recap so it doesn't get missed again...

1) They will deliver at some point

2) I don't think it's a scam.

3) I think he is following a business model that will make them very very rich.

4) I think he has a smart business model.

5) None of it impacts me, my life, or my business.

6) I do think they will sell a LOT of them once they start delivering, whenever that may be.

I think you're confusing me with someone that has ever disagreed with 1 through 6.

[Scott Shepherd]

I think you're confusing me with someone that has ever disagreed with 1 through 6.

Show me where I said you did.

[Lee DeRaud]

Show me where I said you did.

For some odd reason the word "metadisagreement" just jumped into my head...

[Matt McCoy]

Show me where I said you did.

Good morning Steve. It appears you are debating yourself. The onus is always on the one offering a critique or proclamation. Unless you're a fervent Tweeter. Sad! When you posit that GF incorrectly (probably) sold 2,000 units and that they don't care about those early customers and that those naive customers are not enlightened enough to realize that the founders may build a company that they might cash out further down the road, you are not offering that as a positive opinion. Your statement, "I'm not sure their current customer base realize that's the intent" can not be followed up with "What a nice benefit and how lucky are they -- everyone is a winner!" You're implying (whether you realize it or not) naivete or deception of their base.

Anyone following along at home will not mistake your post history as supportive or generally positve toward anything GF related. You're even now doubling-down on that sentiment by attempting to round up a posse and state "...things dozens of us said were going to happen, have happened" while patting yourself on the back and taking a victory lap proclaiming "...my track record on this project is close to 100% being right." By doing this, you are aligning yourself with those that have said that cloud-based motion control was impossible, that this would be vaporware, it is a rebadged K40, using off-the-shelf parts, will require a subscription to operate, will need proprietary cartidges, will require proprietary materials, will be overly complicated for women, more dangerous than other lasers, and many more. Which of these do you want to add to your "dozens of us" dogpile and take credit for?

Back to my original opinion at the beginning of this current debate. It would be another day at the office if GF's founders parlayed a start-up into one that is attractive to a bigger buyer. I agreed with you while offering that it is likely not a bad outcome for them or their customers. So, I suppose we can take great pride in earning our Captain Obvious merit badges. Hope you're having a nice weekend.