Glowforge release

[Art Mann]

You don't need to be an expert to conclude that Glowforge has been a failure. The undisputed facts will convince reasonable people of that.

[John Lifer]

Defend them all you want Matt, your prerogative. I just finished reading where the Norm is a quarter inch out of line with those great cameras. And bed view is distorted in a lot. less than 11" total width, these all seem like it is common problem. Their FIRST suggestion is to make sure you are on a perfectly FLAT surface. I know I wouldn't want to have to be calling up a tech and waiting several DAYS for them to try and fix. (and this IS happening to many) And there is zero user calibration. The 'cloud' seems such a great idea, but it truly isn't and will be a major part of the downfall. I know that it KILLED any motivation of me thinking of one. When GF fails, all Everyone that owns one has is a paperweight. I kind of hate bashing, it seemed like a good product. Oh and having a few patents isn't worth much, in this case, I think it is just marketing point.

[John Lifer]

You don't need to be an expert to conclude that Glowforge has been a failure. The undisputed facts will convince reasonable people of that.

Absolutely, but there are unfortunately a lot of folks that aren't reasonable out there.
A

[Matt McCoy]

Tens of millions Matt, tens of millions. That's a LOT of money, even in your world And for what technological breakthrough? Slower machines? Epilog had a camera system that took a snapshot of the engraving area and would rotate, move the job around about 3-4 years ago. I watched it in Vegas at a show. Cameras taking shots down onto the bed aren't new. And for tens of millions of dollars, I'd love to be able to hang my hat on at one least feature that was a "Can't live without it" feature. So far, I haven't seen it.

Can you point to any features that would justify tens of millions in R&D and production investments? Keep in mind, $10,000,000 is $100 per hour for 100,000 hours, so $20M would be $100 per hour at 200,000 hours. That's a LOT of development costs for ANY project.

Why do you want to debate the merits, challenges, difficulties, and cost of hardware/software R&D and patents? How much does this process usually cost and how long does it normally take, in your experience?

Again, the discussion was about the contradiction of having the opinion that the GF has developed nothing new, but also acknowledging at the same time that they are building proprietary components and software. The shear fact that it has been difficult and long, as well as going through the expense and work of obtaining patents, should be all any reasonable person would normally need. Throw in a demand from consumers clamoring for what they were selling (indicating that there was a vacuum) successful investors throwing money at GF, and inspiring other manufactures (FSL, Dremel, et al) to develop new products, might help tip an opinion too.

Whether you think it is a good idea or even if you're of the opinion they are re-inventing the wheel, is a moot point. It's just your opinion, and you're not their intended customer anyway or a manufacturing competitor that will have any impact on GF.

It's fine you saw a post or two on their owner's forum to generalize everyone's GF experience. Being in the CS business, you are well aware that happy customers rarely have a need to say anything, but upset ones need to tell the whole world. Squeaky wheel gets the oil, and all that. Right Bert?

Unfortunately, you left out that GF tweaking the software (via the cloud!) to make operational improvements, such as raising the temperature trigger, expanding the engraving are, speed, etc., has been met with positive responses from their backers/owners. Look those up later too when you're noodling through the GF forum.

Now, I respect your opinion, but this is not about whether you or I like/dislike the GF. At least for me. Opinions are like you know what. Everyone has one. Try reading customer reviews on Amazon about literary masterpieces or notable books. My favorite is one that states that "The Diary of Anne Frank" is sooo boring and nothing ever happens, so the reader didn't even finish it.

[Scott Shepherd]

I keep coming back to it because you keep telling us how they have changed the entire world by this revolutionary piece of equipment, yet you can't point to anything that is revolutionary in it's performance.

It's interesting to me that there are many tech magazines that keep writing articles about it and they almost always write articles that defend the scheduling delays. But they never seem to follow up when those new dates slip by. The dates have moved a couple times in recent months, yet not a peep from any of the tech magazines. More than a year past due and about 10 drop dead dates missed and you can't find one article that says "What's going on over there?".

[Matt McCoy]

You don't need to be an expert to conclude that Glowforge has been a failure. The undisputed facts will convince reasonable people of that.

Failure is definitive. The rebuttal is that GF is shipping hardware off an American assembly line and people are receiving them. They ran several units all day/everyday at the latest Maker Faire, with long lines of interested attendees. They had the largest 30-day crowd funding campaign in history (as they like to say), they have smart investors - with proven track records funding them, and folks are generally pleased when they receive there machine. Perhaps we have different definitions of "has been a failure". I would be interested in your undisputed facts.

I've never said it won't be a failure, but if I was betting with Steve's VC investment dollars, the odds would be in GF's favor.

Defend them all you want Matt...

I don't defend "them". I will challenge biased dogpile opinion, incorrect information, and make reasonable perspectives. If I have offered any incorrect info, please point that out below. Thanks.

[Kev Williams]

... Keep in mind, $10,000,000 is $100 per hour for 100,000 hours, so $20M would be $100 per hour at 200,000 hours. That's a LOT of development costs for ANY project.

They've been at this what, 2 years? since there's only 17,520 hours IN 2 years: $20,000,000/17,520 hours = $1141.55 per hour... whew!

Newest GF sales figures I can find are $45M a year ago. Assuming it's maybe $50M now, and assuming $20M is close, that's 40% of revenue spending on R&D, ouch...

gotta love google: the top 10 big spenders on R&D in the world spend a combined 12.6% of revenue on R&D.


For all that money, by now the GF should be the best thing since sliced bread...

One thing they got right was how to raise the dough!
--now if they could just figure out how to work the oven...

[Michael Henriksen]

Kev, do those figures have the refunds subtracted? I think a fair few have asked for refunds as they grew tired of waiting.

[Lee DeRaud]

Again, the discussion was about the contradiction of having the opinion that the GF has developed nothing new, but also acknowledging at the same time that they are building proprietary components and software.

It's only a contradiction if you think "proprietary" and "innovative" are the same thing.

[Scott Shepherd]

One thing they got right was how to raise the dough!
--now if they could just figure out how to work the oven...

One of the funniest things I've ever seen you post Kev Thanks, made me laugh out loud.

[Matt McCoy]

I keep coming back to it because you keep telling us how they have changed the entire world by this revolutionary piece of equipment...

Where? Use direct quotes and actual wording, if you can. While we're standing by:

...It certainly isn't the "groundbreaking" piece of technology that some had told us it would be.

...and for what technological breakthrough?...

yet you can't point to anything that is revolutionary in it's performance.

You are now pivoting to change the direction of the debate to performance. Straw man argument, because this cannot be attributed to me.

It's interesting to me that there are many tech magazines that keep writing articles...

Yes it is. Ask yourself why and see if you can come up with a good answer.

[Dave Sheldrake]

Well, it is. In the real world, it's probably always THE consideration.

You left out the bit after that where I pointed out it is also available on cheap Chinese machines as well.

Bingo! With that last statement, you have the opportunity to see the forest

Guess why the big names in lasers don't use optical cameras for distance registration?

1:It's not accurate
2: Smoke

Again, cherry picking to suit a purpose, much like the 1,000 or so members of the glowforge groups on Facebook who are still convinced they are going to take away all my business when they get their machine.

[Matt McCoy]

It's only a contradiction if you think "proprietary" and "innovative" are the same thing.

The word innovative is not in my post you quoted. That is your creation.

[Matt McCoy]

You left out the bit after that where I pointed out it is also available on cheap Chinese machines as well.

How much and where would an average GF-type consumer purchase one?

How about this?

...none of them use cameras

-and-

Guess why the big names in lasers don't use optical cameras for distance registration?

Then back to were you started above.

Mitsubishi [$260K] have been doing Visual preview for 20 years on lasers...You left out the bit after that where I pointed out it is also available on cheap Chinese machines

Again, cherry picking to suit a purpose, much like the 1,000 or so members of the glowforge groups on Facebook who are still convinced they are going to take away all my business when they get their machine.

I have never said that.

[Steve Morris]

I see the patents as being registered to be sold or more likely licensed in the future, thats the long term revenue view of VC's.
The patents don't really cover anything genuinely new just a few added tweaks to existing methods to make it arguable in court and get more revenue.
As an example the first one (Safety) is pretty much what happens with encoder/servo systems - monitoring position and correcting or stopping on errors according to the programming.

Anyways up I'm glad I don't have my money in this one as its been a bit too smoke and mirrors with its use of terminology from the start and the risk of future charges to get the cloud access - or "subscription fees" as the current polite term seems to be for extortion