Weather Prediction - Can't be that Difficult

[Rich Riddle]

I am in the home in Northern Kentucky at the moment. Just shoveled about four inches of snow. The drive was clear from the previous snow on Monday. The prediction was for one half inch. Because of their prediction, the cities didn't treat roads or send out crews overnight. It has shut down the city of Cincinnati. They are still predicting we might get two or possible three inches of snow. Do these forecasters ever walk outside to see how much has already fallen? The look like total incompetents. Before you defend them saying how difficult their jobs are, realize these folks are highly trained and highly paid. If they can't differentiate a storm from a minor dusting, fire them.

[Jim Matthews]

I grew up near there.
I recall Cincinnati getting glazed with ice so fast that
people would make it to work, and be unable to drive home.

That was back when weather models for the Midwest were
still on paper maps. Understand that it isn't the
weather services that decide when to plow, salt, etc.

That's down to budget constraints at a municipal level.

I'm just down the road from the National Weather service office in Taunton, MA.
We still have tremendous variation in local effects, often severe, within a 5-10 mile range.

Places like Cincinnati and Pittsburgh are at the boundary lattitudes, prone to big swings in atmospheric pressure.
This can happen really fast, and without any fixed start time.

Science is difficult, and imprecise.
It's not like the magic bread transporter,
where Bread goes in and Toast comes out.

I still dunno where the bread goes.

[Scott Shepherd]

There's a guy in this area that's been on the radio for a couple of years and his business is to predict the weather for financial markets. He has come on the radio for years now and slammed weather forecasters and their practices. He posts detailed models on his website and Facebook page (various models) and explains what they are looking at and what they are missing and then he makes his analysis of the events. I've found him to be quite accurate, more so than the weather people. He really has a hate for tv weather people and he's constantly calling them idiots, all the way up to the people at the weather channel.

[Brian Tymchak]

Hmm. The Weather Channel and our local weather (Columbus) had been saying for several days that southern OH would get 5"-8" and even more for eastern half of KY. Time to change the station you're listening to I think..

[Chris Padilla]

Scott,

We need that guy working on climate prediction....

[Dan Hintz]

In the end, true forecasters are using models created mostly before their time. My issue is why haven't these models improved beyond their current levels given the amount of data thrown at them over the years? I'm curious to know if anyone has tried neural networks as an attack path... I'm sure someone has by now, but I'd love to see the research on it. My only conclusion is the models are not taking into account the correct variables, and no one has decided what those variables are.

[Jerome Stanek]

I have heard that it is hard to predict the weather every where in the world. That is the standard answer from the weather people. My wife hates it when I look at a weather map and put it in motion and say that it is not going to do what the dumb weather people say and I am right more often than they are.

[Joe Tilson]

One of the problems is meteorologist training is done in one area of the country, then they get hired in another area, and they have this idea the weather is the same everywhere. IMO they need some geological or geography training as well. Like has been mentioned before, weather can be different within fifteen miles or less.

[Mel Fulks]

We have a local guy who once predicted an all day rain for a Tuesday,five or six days out. And every subsequent day right
up to Monday night, then he said " that rain is going to miss us". It rained all day long. Some of their goofs might even come from playing to public demand. In a winter without snow they will point to North Pole and say " there's a lot of cold
air and moisture here, if it pushes this big warm front out of the way, we could see snow".

[Steve Baumgartner]

C'mon, give the scientists a break! The basic physics were figured out a long time ago. Meteorologists continue to use these formulations because there has been no new science to indicate that they are wrong. The difficulty is that the math, like the atmosphere itself, is very intractable and sensitive to having the data exactly correct, complete, and detailed. Tiny discrepancies or data glitches rapidly grow into totally different outcomes. The mathematical theory of chaos was developed in part by meteorologists trying to explain why their simulations are so often severely wrong. But it's not a question of stuck in the mud, lack of trying, or lack of openness to new techniques, it is that the problem is really that difficult.

On a different note, the majority of TV "weatherpeople" are hired because of their looks and on-air presence, not because of their meteorological skill.

[John Sanford]

Chaos theory, manifested.

Too many variables, many of which aren't even known, and many of which can't be quantified. With overlap between the two groups.

[Phil Thien]

There's a guy in this area that's been on the radio for a couple of years and his business is to predict the weather for financial markets. He has come on the radio for years now and slammed weather forecasters and their practices. He posts detailed models on his website and Facebook page (various models) and explains what they are looking at and what they are missing and then he makes his analysis of the events. I've found him to be quite accurate, more so than the weather people. He really has a hate for tv weather people and he's constantly calling them idiots, all the way up to the people at the weather channel.

I agree with this. I have a client that has a long-haul fleet and he subscribes to a private forecasting service, and their material is quite detailed and offers a range but as the clock ticks down to the event, the range tightens up. They're really very good.

About fifteen years ago, in fact, I scheduled a visit to the home of a guy that runs a large institution for which I do work. We both spoke as I was leaving for his place and had both heard local forecasters say we were going to get 1-2" of snow. He told me his private service was saying 9-10", that we were going to get significant lake effect snow.

His service was spot-on, we got 10". And fast.

It wasn't a big deal for me because his place wasn't that far away.

[Rich Riddle]

Hmm. The Weather Channel and our local weather (Columbus) had been saying for several days that southern OH would get 5"-8" and even more for eastern half of KY. Time to change the station you're listening to I think..

It was all the stations in this area calling for a dusting to 1/2" maximum. Even in the midst of the storm they were saying that we would struggle to get 2" of snow. All they said on the radio a few minutes ago was that this was a record snowfall in addition to the record snowfall on Monday. Tomorrow is supposed to be record cold.

[Lee Schierer]

I've often shoveled 4-8 of a trace of snow from my driveway. When dealing with lake effect, there isn't a math model that actually tells where it will happen or how long it will last. Just look at the photo taken from the air over Buffalo below and tell me how they can predict snow like that? One side of that cloud line got almost nothing the other side got several feet in a few hours.
B2xxtg9IMAA_qmU.jpg

[Brian Elfert]

If some forecasters are supposedly producing weather forecasts that are much more accurate than the average weather forecast then why aren't they making millions selling their forecasts to companies that need accurate weather forecasts?