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  1. #1
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    Perhaps We are but Insects on this Planet

    I intended to launch a giant rant last week about global warming. Instead I actually found it easier and more entertaining to just ask a few questions and then sit back and watch everybody else go at it. But I’d still like to bring up one point:

    “How can anybody say with any proof or certainty that we humans are responsible for the current climate change if nobody can explain why far more dramatic climate shifts have occurred prior to our burning of fossil fuels?”

    The entire hubbub right now is over a rate of temperature change of a degree or two over the next century, a millimeter per year of sea level rise, and mountain glaciers retreating in the northern hemisphere. Eight thousand years ago temperatures rose 20 to 30 degrees, sea level rose 300 to 400 feet, and the northern ice cap retreated thousands of miles! By any measure this climate shift was orders of magnitude greater than we are currently experiencing, and yet there were no cars, coal fired power plants, or gas stoves.

    You can’t deny that half our continent was recently covered in a mile thick blanket of ice. We were in the grips of the current ice age. There were icebergs off Spain, glaciers in Arizona and New Mexico, the British Isles weren’t isles, Florida was twice as big, Long Island and the Midwest were the dumping ground for pulverized rock from Canada, and the fjords of Norway, Alaska, (not to mention Yosemite Valley) were giant rivers of ice. What brought us out of the ice age? Not fossil fuels. We and Neanderthals only burned a little wood.

    Some of us are certain that adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere is the only possible culprit for the current climate change. I’ve heard said, “Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas, we are exacerbating the greenhouse effect, we are destroying the planet, so we’ve got to drive hybrids, plant trees, and turn down the thermostat before it’s too late…yadda yadda yadda…” But consider this: Carbon dioxide is a minor greenhouse gas, maybe 5% of the greenhouse effect. Water vapor is the major greenhouse gas, comprising 80%, 90%, maybe 95% (depending on whom you believe). I ask you this, “Is it not easier to imagine a natural cycle such as a subtle fluctuation in atmospheric water vapor, a small change in the distribution of tropical heat by ocean currents, or a slight change of weather patterns being the source of our current climate change?” Why just focus on one parameter, carbon dioxide emissions, and declare it proof and case closed that we are responsible? Isn’t it reasonable to assume something natural could be changing our climate just as it has before without our help?

    I submit that we should consider being happy the climate is as warm at it is now. The normal climate for the last three million years has been much colder. We are currently enjoying an interglacial period within a major ice age. The pattern the last few million years has been repeating cycles of perhaps 100,000 years of glacial advance followed by 10 or 20 thousand years of decent weather like we’re having now. Again I ask, “what warmed us up so much 8000 years ago?”

    We like to think of ourselves as rulers of the earth, but if you consider the impacts of routine geologic processes such as volcanic eruptions, meteorite impacts, continental collisions, and (yes) climate change, we become little more than insects on the earth. My fellow woodworkers, I plead with you to reconsider the hysteria over global warming. We’ve got plenty to eat, good friends, outdoor comfort (at least during the winter here in Florida), and plenty of wood for entertaining ourselves.
    Last edited by Ed Garrett; 06-16-2007 at 1:25 PM.

  2. #2
    Quote Originally Posted by Ed Garrett View Post

    The entire hubbub right now is over a rate of temperature change of a degree or two over the next century, a millimeter per year of sea level rise, and mountain glaciers retreating in the northern hemisphere. Eight thousand years ago temperatures rose 20 to 30 degrees, sea level rose 300 to 400 feet, and the northern ice cap retreated thousands of miles! By any measure this climate shift was orders of magnitude greater than we are currently experiencing, and yet there were no cars, coal fired power plants, or gas stoves.


    You're entitled to your opinion, but I seriously question your conclusions when your examples have absolutely no basis in fact.

    Where exactly did you read that it was 20 to 30 degrees hotter 8,000 years ago? I've never read anything suggesting that temperatures rose anything more than a 1 or 2 degrees on average.

    If you suggest that natural causes are at work, then I would ask, what are they? Why can't anyone come up with a reliable model that illustrates a cause for the current warming trend? Why hasn't anyone identified these "mysterious" causes?

  3. #3
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    I don't believe we know all the factors, but we know we can and do contribute. If we don't know all the factors, it is awfull hard to get a true idea of how much % we contribute/change the environment.


    I saw a news story a while back that said that Mars had increased in tempeture between the Viking missions, and the rover missions, so even the sun itself, could/does play a role.


    Doesn't mean we shouldn't try to limit our wastes. I still believe we do waste too much as is.


    Edit: So in trying to eliminate waste, send me your old tools!
    Last edited by Randal Stevenson; 06-16-2007 at 5:10 PM. Reason: Humor

  4. #4
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    Fact

    Glen,

    I’m glad you enjoyed my post. I couldn’t agree more about people being entitled to an opinion.

    Where exactly did you read that I said that it was 20 to 30 degrees hotter 8000 years ago? I didn’t.

    I said that temperatures rose by that amount as we emerged from a glacial period within the current ice age. I was referring to a time when giant ice sheets melted from the northern half of our continent and the sea inundated vast areas on the continental margins. The effects of the ice age and our current respite from it are not my opinion. The evidence is overwhelming that thick ice sheets inundated much of Canada, the northern U.S., and the high mountain regions and then suddenly retreated 8000 years ago. You don’t even have to read about it. Just look around anywhere northward of Illinois and you’ll see the landscape is littered with glacial features: till, drumlins, moraines, chaotic drainage patterns, and most interestingly, depressed crust, which is currently rebounding faster than sea level is rising, which is why the sea is retreating in Scandinavia and Northern Canada in spite of the current sea level rise. And yes the temperatures were in excess of 20 degrees colder. I can cite papers all day that discuss temperatures being colder by >20 degrees F. (Example: Climate Dynamics, Volume 24, Issue 2-3, pp. 197-211). You can too. But even if we don’t talk about specific numbers, I bet that you would agree that the climate change we are experiencing now is trivial compared to that seen at the end of the last glacial period (8000 years ago).

    You are right about our failure to model the climate. You asked what natural causes are at work. They aren’t all mysterious. Plenty are known,* surely many more are unknown (by definition), but understanding how they interact to make a climate model is currently beyond our scope. That’s why we can’t prove humans are the culprit for climate change any more than we can say why the glaciers and ice caps melted back 8000 years ago. We don’t know why, which begs many questions: How can we blame climate change on our carbon emissions? How can we know whether our influence is irrelevant? Why should we attempt to correct the climate if we can’t prove why it is changing? Why should we not expect the climate to change if it has always changed? Who doesn’t believe the climate changes naturally? Isn’t that obvious?




    *Mechanisms for natural climate change? Here are just a few: Solar output, earth/sun geometry, volcanic emissions, fluctuations in ocean and atmospheric distribution of heat accumulated from the tropics, ocean and atmospheric chemical changes, changes in reflectivity of the atmosphere and surface, and slowly but surely: a multitude of geologic actions that is too long to list here…

  5. #5
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    Thank-you Ed for the voice of reason among the sea of hysteria. This gigantic ball spinning around space has been doing it's thing for millions of years. Mankinds existence here is but a speck of sand on a beach.
    Mother Earth and our solar system will be doing the cooling and heating cycles long after mankind is gone, just like the dinosaurs.
    But if it relieves the self-inflicted guilt some may have, continue your conserving ways.
    In the mean time, I hope everybody drives 12 miles a gallon SUV's so we can run out of oil so future generations can use science and common sense and use energy that pseudo- intellectuals will have a hard time picking apart.
    Gary K.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gary Keedwell View Post
    Thank-you Ed for the voice of reason among the sea of hysteria. In the mean time, I hope everybody drives 12 miles a gallon SUV's so we can run out of oil so future generations can use science and common sense and use energy that pseudo- intellectuals will have a hard time picking apart.
    Gary K.
    If common sense were so common wouldn't everyone have it? As it is I think it should be called uncommon sense. Remember on the average man kind lives around 73 years, if we live with in reason a moderate life style & contribute the best we can to society have we really done all we are supposed to?
    Last edited by Bart Leetch; 07-08-2007 at 4:53 PM.
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  7. #7
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    Gee I was hiking this weekend at the Helderberg escarpment in NY and found seashell fossils. One of the signs talked about the glacial lake 10k years ago where Albany is now. I kind of think the planet is going to do what it plans to do. We just happen to make the biggest hives on the planet at this point.
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  8. #8
    I think the warmer's arguments are all hooie.
    I think Kyoto and warming are massive boondoggles intended to effectuate a wealth transfer from the USA to nearly every one else.

  9. #9
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    Ed - since you're a geologist, I defer to your education and wealth of knowledge. But since you're employed within the very industry that you are trying to deflect culpability away from I worry that your comments may perhaps/possibly/potentially be therefore self serving and prejudicial.

    Who cares what or who is at fault? Arguing that point to death will do nothing towards ensuring our planet will continue to sustain life. Fixing it or learning to adapt seems a far better course of action.
    Only the Blue Roads

  10. #10
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    Not Me.

    Quote Originally Posted by Andy Hoyt View Post
    Ed - since you're a geologist, I defer to your education and wealth of knowledge. But since you're employed within the very industry that you are trying to deflect culpability away from I worry that your comments may perhaps/possibly/potentially be therefore self serving and prejudicial.

    Hi Andy,

    I appreciate your confidence in me and your concern about my perspective, but I'm not a researcher nor do I work for industry. I'm just a government regulator. At work I'm an unbiased enforcer our my state's oil and gas laws. I make a huge effort to interpret and apply our statutes fairly. I consider myself a true public servant. But when I get home (and online) I enjoy kicking around some ideas with friends. This is fun isn't it???

    P.S.: I wouldn't agree that the energy industry is culpable. They are responding to our voracioius demand for energy. Even if we could prove that carbon emissions are the real culprit, then we should only blame ourselves as consumers. Without our demand for energy, there would be no energy companies.
    Last edited by Ed Garrett; 06-16-2007 at 7:05 PM.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Andy Hoyt View Post
    ...Who cares what or who is at fault? ...Fixing it or learning to adapt seems a far better course of action.
    I fail to understand how "Fixing it..." can possibly happen unless we "care(s) what or who is at fault". In other words, how can you fix it if you don't know what to fix?

    (That's assuming, of course, that there's anything that needs fixing.)
    Last edited by Tom Veatch; 06-24-2007 at 12:10 AM.
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  12. #12
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    There are alot of people that think 9-11-2001 was a government (USA) conspiracy.
    There are alot of people that believe Hurricane Katrina was a government plot.
    There are alot of people that think humans can change the earth's weather.
    There are alot of people that still see Elvis........Everywhere....

    Gary K.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gary Keedwell View Post
    There are alot of people that believe Hurricane Katrina was a government plot.
    Anything is possible, but I think they're looking at the Katrina event from the wrong angle.

    If I lived in an area where the mean elevation can be measured in inches and is prone to being hit by hurricanes, and a hurricane destroyed my home and all my possessions and very nearly killed me, I'd try to learn something from the experience. "Hmm...maybe living here isn't that great an idea."

    But if somebody wanted to give me money to move back to that place afterward, I might tend to question whether they really had my best interests at heart. "Well, you really lucked out this time...but there's always next year. Here's your check."
    Yoga class makes me feel like a total stud, mostly because I'm about as flexible as a 2x4.
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  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cliff Rohrabacher View Post
    I think the warmer's arguments are all hooie.
    I think Kyoto and warming are massive boondoggles intended to effectuate a wealth transfer from the USA to nearly every one else.
    Again Cliff, you articulate what alot of thinking people, are thinking out side of the proverbial box.
    Another way of conserving money would be to eliminate the so-called United Nations. I would take the wasted money we as americans contribute to this boondoogle, and direct it towards real scientists who could find real energy.
    Gary K.

  15. #15
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    I'm a "thinking people" and I don't think what you're thinking, apparently...nor do so many people and organizations that have studied this problem. Calling those who don't believe what we believe names doesn't make for a very effective dialog or debate. It just gets really close to language that isn't in character with the SMC community...
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