Covid 19: The risks, know them, avoid them

[Art Mann]

It is completely unreasonable to compare known deaths with known cases. The reason is we have not done widespread antibody testing and something like 50% of those who got don't even know it. In studies where all people in a given area were tested for antibodies as an experiment, the ratio was about 50 to 1 previously unknown versus known infections. On the other hand, the policy in many hospitals is to call the cause of death Covid-19, even though the person may have the disease but died from some other cause. The most believable mortality that I have heard reported is more like 0.1 - 0.3%.

If all 16 of your grandchildren contracted Covid-19, the chances of any of them dying are vanishingly small because young, healthy people don't die from it. It is only old people with other contributing factors like me who die. I have read that 50% of the fatalities so far occurred in nursing homes or similar facilities. It is noteworthy that these people are among the most protected of all populations.

Today's numbers:
confirmed cases US, 1,410,000 - deaths, 83,807
cases to death ratio: 16.82 to 1

confirmed case worldwide: 4,310,000 - deaths, 294,000
cases to death ratio: 14.65 to 1

I mentioned this the other day: 1 have 16 grandkids. If all of them contract the virus, these stats means we'll likely be burying one of them.

Averaging the US and worldwide flu numbers I dug up recently, flu cases to death ratio is 1555 to 1...
--Versus 16 to 1 for Covid-19; NOT a high-mortality virus? Sorry, I beg to differ.

[Kev Williams]

Just running the published numbers. I agree the actual cases are higher, but what about the 'actual deaths are probably 50-60% higher' mentions in the news as of late? Factor that against 'those who didn't know they had it', and what's the result? Who knows! But I'm willing to bet that while it'll significantly raise the 16:1 ratio, it'll still be a sight worse than .1 to .3%. But even a .3% rate is still 1 in 333. Does that sound 'manageable'? --A question to anyone who's still reading: If someone asked you stand in a circle formed of 333 people while a blindfolded person standing in the middle of the circle was going to randomly shoot one of you, would you?

[Art Mann]

The undeniable fact is deaths from Covid-19 are not random as you describe. This disease almost never kills or seriously injures healthy people. It gets to old people with other existing conditions - like me for example. We need to find a way to protect such people and let the rest of society go about their business as usual. Nobody seems to be talking about the tragedy of allowing the economy of an entire country revert to what it was during the great depression but that is what is happening as we talk about this. The amount of human misery experienced by that outcome is worse than a death rate of 1% of old warn out people like me. The results of the epidemic are easy to see. The results of the destruction of the economy are not (yet).