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Thread: Is the cost of anything not going up?

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  1. #1
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dave Zellers View Post
    This is easily the most interesting/important discussion I've ever read on SMC. For the record, I align with Malcolm. The transition away from oil and gas dominance is important, cleaning the air is vital, but we are moving too fast. It's more political than logical. People have to heat their homes. I have a hunch fossil fuels will be with us for a very long time, if not forever. Introducing viable alternatives is great and should be encouraged of course. The more diverse our energy supply is, the more robust it is. Things happen. A huge solar farm in Texas was just wiped out by a hail storm. Until that can be rebuilt, alternatives are needed to make up that loss of power.
    What, in your opinion, are signs that we are moving too fast?

    Here are a few signs that we are not. The hottest 10 years on record for world temperatures are the last 8 years, yes only 8 because of ties. That hail storm you referred to was a sign of more severe weather events as a result of climate change. Another thread on this forum discusses increases in home insurance, higher rates are driven in large part by increases in severe weather events.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Doug Garson View Post
    What, in your opinion, are signs that we are moving too fast?

    Here are a few signs that we are not. The hottest 10 years on record for world temperatures are the last 8 years, yes only 8 because of ties. That hail storm you referred to was a sign of more severe weather events as a result of climate change. Another thread on this forum discusses increases in home insurance, higher rates are driven in large part by increases in severe weather events.
    Since you live North of the border you probably wouldn't know this. But there have been hail storms for as long as I can remember and I'm 66. Golf ball, baseball, even softball sized hail while not common occurrences has been associated with severe weather for years. With solar farms becoming common place it's only to be expected that hail will strike one or more of these installations. They build more of them in the southern regions for the added sunshine which is also where more severe weather happens. Going green is fine. When the government decides when it will happen is when it becomes a snafu. I know Canada already drew the line in the sand for motor vehicles and it appears we are going to do the same only quicker now. They are saying 2032. So sitting in an office far removed from reality people are deciding that the ICE will no longer meet new emission standards. Based on where current EV prices are there are people who won't be able to afford an EV. Volumes have gotten high enough to show that will probably not impact prices by much. Used vehicle prices will spike I'm sure. That doesn't even touch on whether the electric grid can possibly come close to charging 15.5 million vehicles. That's how many cars and light trucks were sold in the US last year. Anyway it's all speculation until it happens.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Doug Garson View Post
    What, in your opinion, are signs that we are moving too fast?

    Here are a few signs that we are not. The hottest 10 years on record for world temperatures are the last 8 years, yes only 8 because of ties. That hail storm you referred to was a sign of more severe weather events as a result of climate change. Another thread on this forum discusses increases in home insurance, higher rates are driven in large part by increases in severe weather events.
    Oh come on now, everything that happens that we don't like is not a result of global warming. Destructive hail storms have been part of our weather forever and insurance costs are increasing along with everything else during this inflationary period. We were told with great certainty that hurricanes would increase in frequency and intensity. Didn't happen.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dave Zellers View Post
    Oh come on now, everything that happens that we don't like is not a result of global warming. Destructive hail storms have been part of our weather forever and insurance costs are increasing along with everything else during this inflationary period. We were told with great certainty that hurricanes would increase in frequency and intensity. Didn't happen.
    Seems NASA disagrees with you:
    "Severe storms are becoming more intense due to global warming, and hailstorms, a type of severe storm, can be more damaging than hurricanes. A NASA project is creating better ways to predict these unusual weather events.
    Hailstorms are much more likely to form than tornadoes and are among the most expensive weather events in the U.S., often causing more damage than hurricanes, and computer models predict that due to warming temperatures, severe storms will become more intense."
    https://science.nasa.gov/science-res...of-hailstorms/

    As does the insurance industry:
    "The president of one of the world’s largest insurance brokers warned Wednesday that climate change is destabilizing the insurance industry, driving up prices and pushing insurers out of high-risk markets."
    https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...ance-industry/




    While everything we don't like may not be a result of climate change, the frequency and intensity of things we don't like is increasing due to climate change.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doug Garson View Post
    Seems NASA disagrees with you:
    Not at all surprised. Every single agency that is funded by the government takes that position. Easy money.

    https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/...more-frequent/

    Isn't Miami supposed to be under water by now? All I am saying regarding all this is the hyperbole is THICK. And facts are being manipulated, ignored and even fabricated. There is no need for all the hysteria. Chart a sane course to reduce fossil fuels over the next few decades to ease the burden on those of moderate means.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dave Zellers View Post
    Not at all surprised. Every single agency that is funded by the government takes that position. Easy money.

    https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/...more-frequent/

    Isn't Miami supposed to be under water by now? All I am saying regarding all this is the hyperbole is THICK. And facts are being manipulated, ignored and even fabricated. There is no need for all the hysteria. Chart a sane course to reduce fossil fuels over the next few decades to ease the burden on those of moderate means.
    I guess it depends on who you choose to listen to. By their own words the Conservative Woman is "counter-cultural offensive against the forces of Leftism, feminism and modernism – against the left-liberal cultural zeitgeist, to counter its anti-family, authoritarian identity politics and ‘equality and diversity’ ideology which had swept through the country’s institutions." Not one mention that I saw about being guided by the science. On the other hand,The Environmental Defence Fund, by their owns words is "Guided by science and economics, and committed to climate justice, we work in the places, on the projects and with the people that can make the biggest difference."
    According to the Environmental Defence Fund "Stronger hurricanes are becoming more common in a warmer climate. Researchers suggest that the most damaging U.S. hurricanes are three times more frequent than 100 years ago, and that the proportion of major hurricanes (Category 3 or above) in the Atlantic Ocean has doubled since 1980."
    https://www.edf.org/climate/how-clim...0since%201980.

    And yes we need to chart a sane course towards reduction in fossil fuel use but not one lead by groups like the Conservative Woman, more like NASA or the Environmental Defence Fund and I think the timeline has to be less than the next few decades, that would have worked if we started a few decades ago.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Doug Garson View Post
    I guess it depends on who you choose to listen to.
    Totally agree. I was only interested in the charts provided and points made. I know nothing about TCW. But I do know it is extremely important to pay attention to opposing viewpoints. Today, everyone has taken sides and completely dismisses any arguments that come from outside their camp.

    It seems quite logical that hurricane data historically consists of named storms and today we have skewed the data by naming many more storms.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dave Zellers View Post
    It seems quite logical that hurricane data historically consists of named storms and today we have skewed the data by naming many more storms.
    Have a cite for that? (I'm finding lots of stuff about how names are picked, not so much about what qualifies a storm for naming.)

    It seems quite logical that "historically" (prior to weather satellites) a named storm would only be one that made landfall or at least got into shipping lanes: you don't name a storm you never saw. But that still allows a pretty accurate count over the last 50+ years.

    (Of course one obvious possibility for naming more storms today is that, well, there are actually more of them.)
    Yoga class makes me feel like a total stud, mostly because I'm about as flexible as a 2x4.
    "Design"? Possibly. "Intelligent"? Sure doesn't look like it from this angle.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lee DeRaud View Post
    Have a cite for that?
    Geeze. I included it in the above post. We have satellites that see every storm now. Many (most?) of them fizzle out. But it gets a name when in the past few would have even been aware of it.
    Last edited by Dave Zellers; 03-27-2024 at 11:06 PM.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dave Zellers View Post
    We have satellites that see every storm now. Many (most?) of them fizzle out. But it gets a name when in the past few would have even been aware of it.
    That is pretty much exactly what I said in the portion you redacted. If you don't want to compare current data to historical data, don't. But there are decades of current (i.e. satellite) data available for analysis, not to mention trivially simple ways to resolve conflicts in data collection methods for older data.

    (Hint: the mere number of named storms is not a factor in any meaningful analysis of trends in hurricane number/strength.)
    Yoga class makes me feel like a total stud, mostly because I'm about as flexible as a 2x4.
    "Design"? Possibly. "Intelligent"? Sure doesn't look like it from this angle.
    We used to be hunter gatherers. Now we're shopper borrowers.
    The three most important words in the English language: "Front Towards Enemy".
    The world makes a lot more sense when you remember that Butthead was the smart one.
    You can never be too rich, too thin, or have too much ammo.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lee DeRaud View Post
    That is pretty much exactly what I said in the portion you redacted.
    Yep. I see that. My bad. I fall victim to that which I criticize. Too much multi-tasking on my end. I'm at the same time learning how to grow potatoes in pots.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dave Zellers View Post
    Yep. I see that. My bad. I fall victim to that which I criticize. Too much multi-tasking on my end. I'm at the same time learning how to grow potatoes in pots.
    I give you credit given for admitting your mistake, too many are incapable of doing that. Never tried growing potatoes in or out of a pot.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Doug Garson View Post
    Never tried growing potatoes in or out of a pot.
    Oh man- it's subtle but spuds fresh out of the ground are awesome.

    Hey- maybe I can turn this thing into a gardening thread.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Lee DeRaud View Post
    (Hint: the mere number of named storms is not a factor in any meaningful analysis of trends in hurricane number/strength.)
    I will take your word that is true but I constantly see articles in the media with the phrase "More named storms than ever in the history of record keeping" There is a battle going on now between the right and left and truth be damned.

    Sorry, I said I'd stop droning on and on.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dave Zellers View Post
    Totally agree. I was only interested in the charts provided and points made. I know nothing about TCW. But I do know it is extremely important to pay attention to opposing viewpoints. Today, everyone has taken sides and completely dismisses any arguments that come from outside their camp.

    It seems quite logical that hurricane data historically consists of named storms and today we have skewed the data by naming many more storms.
    I tend to look at the credentials and mission statements of groups before I look at what they post. NASA put a man on the moon, seems like they would do their homework and apply the science on climate change before making any statements or predictions.

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