Dennis,
What it sounds like is as you stated - condensation - but I think it's from the metal vent for the exhaust. Since it only happens when it is cold, I suspect the exhaust gases are causing condensation on the cold metal vent and running back down onto the burner. With that said, is the venting metal? And, I will hazard a guess - it runs through the wall to the outside vs. into a masonry chimney - maybe? Kinda sorta?
I think you're on the right track. But I am not sure if it is a real problem or "they all do that" kind of thing.
Sorry I can't be more help.
Wes