Quote Originally Posted by Robert Engel View Post
I am not a human epidemiologist, but I am in the medical field somewhat familiar with infectious diseases.

One aspect to understand about spread is subclinical (non symptomatic) infections. These are people (young children apparently rarely show symptoms) who become infected and do not get sick at all. If everyone got sick, they could be isolated. But subclinical people will never be isolated nor tested but they can shed the virus. With this in mind, what surprises me is the apparent lack of spread, which of course could change.

So far 21 people out of 3500 on a cruise ship (19 crew, 2 passengers) tested positive. It will be interesting to see how many eventually test positive and how many actually get sick.

Ultimately an epidemiological study based on antibodies (exposure) has to be done to determine the true mortality rate. IOW antibody testing will show if you have ever been infected, whereas the current test only shows the presence of the virus, which is NOT a determiner of illness. I have read the WHO estimate of 3.4% mortality will be shown to be severely overestimated when this is all over. It more likely to be as low as 0.1%.

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IMO the media is more dangerous than the virus! IMO the public has been unnecessarily panicked. 17 deaths and the stock market crashes?

People need to listen to knowledgeable people like Dr. Ben Carson, who are trying to educate, not panic. Also quite sad to see it being made into a political issue by the media and other people who will stop at nothing to denigrate their opponent.

That said, there is no vaccine and there are categories of people at higher risk. If I were immunologically challenged, on chemo, over 70, or working in a child care facility, hospital, etc I would be concerned.

But the hysteria promulgated by the media and politicians will not help anyone.
First half good commentary.

Second half politics.

Mike